Tralfaz

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  • Innumeracy and the cult of anti-vax

    The last post was about an innate understanding of scale and scope, and how this lead to a general understanding of magnitudes.

    A real world example, and one that is top of the news lately is the whole “anti-vaccine” movement. This is the increasing tendency to choose to not vaccinate your children due to the faulty belief that vaccines are worse than the disease. Leaving that argument aside, lets apply this “scale” thing to the antivaccine argument:

    Measles, a once common childhood disease, has several bad results, with the death rate being on the order of 3 per 1,000 infections. (I will admit that I am horrified by how high this is.) That means that if 1000 children contract the measles virus, 3 will die. Let that sink in. That is a 0.3% fatality rate. Seems pretty low, until …

    The MMR (Measles, Mumps, and Rubella) vaccine has pretty much eradicated the disease. In 2000 there were virtually no cases reported in the USA.

    Of course, the vaccine is not risk free. The major risk is an allergic reaction to an ingredient, usually the albumin (protein from the white of an egg), causing an anaphylactic reaction. This is somewhat on the order of less than one event per million doses. That is almost three orders of magnitude lower than the risk of death. (1/1000 the risk). And guess what, when you get a vaccine, the healthcare provider has an epi pen ready for the vanishingly rare anaphylaxis, so even if you do have such a reaction, you will get immediate treatment for it. There is also a more common reaction, of a fever, a rash, and other symptoms, all of which are far less risky than the disease. None of these are considered life threatening.

    So, the risk of a vaccine adverse reaction is 1/1000th the risk of DYING from the disease itself.

    The truly horrifying statistic is the rate of death in immunocompromised victims of measles. That mortality rate is a staggering 30%. That means that if your child is immunocompromised, and contracts the disease, they have a nearly 1 in 3 chance of dying.

    Summary

    The general population is poorly prepared to weigh risks, and scale. Clearly, the benefits of vaccinating your children vastly outweighs the risks with vaccination, but the specious arguments bantered about highlight how little
    the general populace understands the scope and scale of the risks.

  • House Hunting Journal – Mortgage Companies Suck

    I wrote this a couple weeks ago, before we closed so I wouldn’t jinx the process. The process of mortgage underwriting is completely f*cked up at this point. This post is some of the zaniness I had to endure.

    The last house I bought, in Chandler Arizona was a breeze. We bought it in 2012 (i.e. well after the global financial crisis), and apart from documenting my wages, and supplying some paperwork about our house in Tucson that we were keeping and renting, it was a relatively painless process. That is not to say that we didn’t have some hoops to jump through, but they were easy, and quickly dispatched.

    The loan we got here is a whole other story. Granted, we are borrowing the maximum allowed for a conforming loan. But it is a standard 30 year, fixed rate mortgage (that we locked in at 3.56%) I make plenty of money to qualify and repay the mortgage, and we are putting 10% down, a considerable amount of cash, so it seems like it should have been an easy process.

    Nope. The wrinkle is that we are selling our Tucson house, (it is under contract, but it will close after we close here in San Jose) and that bears on the total debt ratio. So it was an unending stream of requests for documentation, and justifications for everything in the package. My relocation letter wasn’t good enough. My 4 pay stubs with my salary weren’t enough. My promotion letter with my new salary on it wasn’t enough.

    We supplied the insurance policy information three times for Christ’s sake.

    A few things that really got stuck in my craw:

    • The Tucson house HOA. They insisted on a printout from a secure website that showed the dues, and the payment schedule. Of course, the rinky-dink HOA was run by a rinky dink company that didn’t have a secure website, or really anything that was acceptable. All for a HOA fee of $45 every quarter. Yes, that’s right, $15 a month.
    • The transfer of funds when we closed a bank account. Upon moving here, the bank we used in Arizona, BBVA Compass, was not going to work for us. With only two branches int he bay area, neither within 20 miles of our house, we changed banks. So on December 23, we closed the BBVA account, and Barbara got a cashier’s check for the funds there (something north of $42K). The teller made a mistake and made the cashier’s check a little less than the total. The difference, $2.18, he just paid in cash. It took 3 hours over three days to satisfy the underwriter of this $2.18 discrepancy. I burned about $200 worth of work time to account for the price of a tall regular coffee from Starbucks.
    • The mortgage company uses a portal to communicate the status. mortgageloanstatus.com that seems to be a common portal. It started relevant with a lot of documents that I needed to sign, and return. But also is a panel to explain the needed items to clear. The problem is that they never updated it as we cleared the documents. Useless as tits on a boar hog.

    Look, I get it that the fast and loose times that lead to the crash in 2008 were bad, and that we need to tighten the process up, but the mindless drones, questioning $15 HOA fees, and $2.18 discrepancies in a transaction of over $42,000, well, fuck me.

    I am also certain that the required mortgage company that we needed to use due to the relocation company was part of the problem. They were located in New Jersey, and the time differential (3 hours) didn’t help. Add in the nuttiness of the California market, where you have to act fast, and process it immediately. They never picked up the sense of urgency that is demanded to win here.

    The process is done, the loan was approved, and funded, and we have the house. Next up will be the before post with plenty of pictures of what we will be changing before we move in.

    I can hardly wait to get out of the apartment. Our formal move-out day will likely be March 31. I will hate to pay the termination fee on the lease, but I would hate even more to have the mortgage AND the rent.

  • 5 months of the Specialized 2015 Crave Expert

    5 months of the Specialized 2015 Crave Expert

    With 5 months of riding, it is time for an update of the 2015 Specialized Crave Expert. A few hundred miles in, with about an even mix of road and off road riding, there are a few things to update.

    I still hate the tires. I haven’t replaced them yet, but it will happen soon. They are a bit squirrely on hardpack, OK on loose/hard dirt, and awful in the mud. I am not a big mud rider, so this isn’t a bad thing per se, but I do ride a lot of hard pack. Will be changing them soon. The other thing is that the carcass of the tire aren’t very good at blocking thorns or sharp items. I have had A LOT of flats. Mr. Tuffy’s to the rescue.

    The seat. I know some people rave about the Specialized seat, but I am not one of them. It rubs my crotch raw on ordinary rides (90 minutes or less). Time to upgrade to a better saddle. My Terry Fly Ti on my road bike is super comfortable for hours and hours of riding. I know it is a road saddle, but it will also be added to my mountain bike. Don’t tell anyone.

    The brakes. Still super powerful, and smooth, but they have become noisy. Not a squeal, but an annoyance nonetheless. They are the organic pads, and the discs are not compatible with the better pads. I will probably swap for XTR discs, and better pads. When I have a couple hundred to spare. Until then, it is tolerable.

    The fork. Rockshox Reba in the color scheme of the frame. This I really like. I bought a suspension pump, and got the air bladder set right for my portly weight, and it is great. The lockout is perfect for the tarmac milage between the dirt. I am sure there are better forks, but for my riding, I am happy with this set of silverware.

    The wheels. Being the first disc brakes I have had on a bike, I am not as sensitive to being out of true as with a rim brake. However, every time I put the bike on the stand, the wheels are perfect. I know 5 months isn’t a long time, but I am happy so far. (Being a bit heavy my self, 235# plus, this is pretty good)

    General impressions:

    The 29″ wheels take some adjustment. It is not obvious what is different unless you ride 26 back to back with a 29, but it does roll over obstacles. One trail I ride has been abused by some heavy rainfall, and littered with some half buried babyheads. The Crave rolls right over them, even though there is a sphincter clench factor of 7. I know on a 26″ bike I would have gone over the bars.

    The bike floats over some gnarly ruts as well. It takes some practice to just let it go (previously, I would brake hard, and paddle over some of these.)

    Climbing is not its strength. I am not sure if it is the bike and the geometry, or just my confidence, but I used to just ride up and over roots and rocks that I just haven’t felt comfortable blasting up over them. The 2×9 gears are pretty sweet though, for smooth climbs it definitely rocks the dirt.

    The frame geometry is pretty forgiving. You can carve a pretty tight line even with such large wheels, and do some amazing maneuvering. I like it.

    Overall, the bike is a solid hardtail, with a good mix of capability and component quality. I am looking forward to many hundreds of dirt miles this year.

  • Numeracy, the common sense of numbers

    When I was in school, calculators were new enough, that they really weren't something that the average student had. They were expensive, and quite limited. Hence, we learnt how to do arithmetic with pencil and paper.

    In those days, the lesson plans were written to be approachable in a reasonable time frame to students to solve problems with pencil and paper easily.

    Even in my physics class (3rd year) we never once used a calculator. But I did learn some things that hang with me to this very day.

    Scale – in high school mathematics, it isn't obvious, but when you take science courses, you learn about this thing called "Scientific Notation". That is typically, mantissa and an exponent. The mantissa being a number like a.bbbbb where the number of "significant digits" is related to how precisely you know a value.

    Estimation – In my high school physics class, we didn't use calculators, but we did learn how to use a slide rule. Don't laugh, this was extremely useful. You learn that you can quickly do large calculations by just operating on the mantissa's and then figuring out the magnitude. Thus 6.03e23 * 1.47e-7 is the equivalent of (6.021.47)x1023 – 7 or 8.85e16 (note, if you use a calculator to calculate 6.02×1.47 you will get a lot more numbers to the right of the decimal point, but I truncated it at two, as there was two digits of significant figures). Thus you can quickly get the scale of the answer (or estimate) by fiddling with the exponents. In this case, you can also get close to the mantissa by noting that 6.02 is almost 6, and 1.47 is a little less than 1.5. 1.56 is 9, so you know that it is a little less than 9, so guess 8.8, and then the exponent of 23 – 7, and you get 8.8e16, pretty damn close, and you can do it in your head.

    There are a lot of other tricks that I use almost daily, often to claims if being magic by the people I interact with, but reality is just common sense combined with numeracy.

    Today, students are armed with calculators, and the art of estimation, and an innate sense of scale is dying. I firmly believe that, plus the rise of misinformation packaged as fact on the internet is leading to the rise in the anti-vaccine trends.

    Next up, I will take apart the common justification of not vaccinating.

  • Blacklist – TV Show

    Blacklist – TV Show

    Netflix has sabotaged my time again. This time with the drama “Blacklist)”, a show about a US Naval Officer who dropped off the grid, going rogue and criminal, and then becoming a high value informer for the government.

    Spoiler alert: if you haven’t watched, and are interested, you might want to stop here and move along.

    The Pilot was fairly compelling, but a bit cheesy. Raymond (Red) Reddington turns himself in at FBI Headquarters, and offers to assist in the capture of some seriously bad dudes (and dudettes), but there is a catch. He will work only through a new agent, a profiler who just joined the force, Elizabeth Keen.

    In the first episode, the story is about halting a public, high impact bombing using a General’s daughter who was kidnapped from the custody of said agent Keen.

    But as with all drama’s there is the main thread, but a few side threads all intertwined into the tapestry of the show. In the pilot, there is a subtext of a connection between Red and Agent Keen that is telegraphing a long term plot line. Additionally, one of the methods the “bad dude” employs to affect agent Keen’s motivation is the restraint and stabbing of her husband, a goofy 4th grade teacher that balances her serious job at the FBI.

    The show ends with agent Keen cleaning up the blood, removing the ruined carpet, and discovering a hidden cubbyhole containing a box with lots of cash, several passports with her husband’s picture but aliases, and a gun (looks to be a H&K 9mm).

    Shit, I am hooked. Yes, the bad dudes getting nailed is a positive feeling, but now I want to know about the connection between Keen and Reddington, and what douchebaggery is her husband up to?

    Megan Boone plays agent Keen, and this will likely be a breakout role for her. She does a great job, and you quickly empathize with her.

    Red Reddington is played by James Spader. I have long been a fan, and his acting is spectacular. In fact, without his presence, I doubt the pilot would have been picked up. However, time has not been kind to James Spader. Definitely not aging well, but he pulls off the character.

    The plot holes

    As I have mentioned the show is a good watch, and the writers/producers do a great job with adding a hook near the end on one of the subplots that keeps you waiting for the next installment.

    But looking at the higher level, the premise that this rogue criminal returns to the fold, and they allow him to remain free, as long as he helps them catch seriously bad dudes. Yeah, that is going to happen.

    Still it is a good story as long as you can overlook that hole.

  • Riding the Train

    Riding the Train

    I have long enjoyed riding the train. There is something soothing about the sound of the wheels on the track. The stops, people getting on and off. What is their purpose for traveling? Why did they choose the train?

    My first experience with Caltrain was when I was fairly young, probably 8 or 9. I had a step brother who lived in San Francisco, and I would visit occasionally on the weekend, so my mother would drop me off at the Sunnyvale station, and I would ride the train to San Francisco.

    (Yes, this may seem odd today, but I assure you that it wasn’t weird, and didn’t seem dangerous at all in the early 1970’s.)

    Exciting.

    My next major experience was when I started traveling internationally. If you go to Japan, you pretty much live and die by the train schedule and map. You very quickly learn to navigate, and figure out the timing to get to your destination.

    Ah, Shinjuku station, the busiest train station in the world, at rush hour. It is a sea of people you find yourself swimming with.

    Europe also has outstanding train service, giving you options to get from city to city in comfort, at a fair price.

    The reason for this reminiscence? Wednesday, I took a sojourn to a tradeshow in San Francisco. Naturally, I took the train. Got on early, so I got a good seat, and watched the whole trip. You see plenty of things if you are observant.

    Lots of graffiti. Every vertical surface along the track is coated in colorful graffiti of various artistic quality.

    Sad: Homeless encampments. Never saw this before, but an inevitable sign of the times.

    Fun: Kids heading to school. From south San Jose, there were a few kids headed to Bellarmine, and on the way home, plenty from a girls Catholic school in Menlo Park.

    Nasty: There always seems to be a person with bad body odor.

    The pace of travel is sedate, and you can’t control the speed, so you succumb to the mode of transport, and enjoy. I do like train travel.

  • My fascination with History

    Like most Americans, I took the usual high school level history classes. At the time, they seemed dull and worthless. Memorizing dates and events, and the bland US history they cram down your pie hole, it is no wonder why I was nonplussed.

    Then my 3rd year of university, I took a real US History class at SJSU and my eyes were opened. The professor was not very dynamic, but the subject was fascinating. I learned that we had been pretty much lied to in high school, that there was plenty of events and actions in the US historical record to be ashamed of.

    Still, the passion, while awakened, wasn’t elevated enough to action.

    Fast forward 20 years. I was stumbling around Powell’s Bookstore in Portland, and I stumble across a tome on the history of mathematics. This stirred a long dormant passion.

    Having studied Physics, which is a lot of applied mathematics, I realized that we often covered in a semester what took a few hundred years of effort by several very talented mathematicians and natural philosophers to “discover“. I always wanted to get into the stepping stones to the eureka moments.

    So I bought the book. It was FABULOUS reading. I was riveted. I quickly picked up several more texts on it, and they often talked about the sponsors of the work, and this got to politics.

    Then, one Christmas, my dad gave me a book by Daniel Boorstin, on the major discoveries throughout the ages, called “The Discoverers“, the first book in a trilogy with “The Creators“, and “The Seekers“. I highly recommend all three.

    I was hooked. I bought several others of his books, including the trilogy on the American Experience.

    The passion was ignited. I have added books on the history of Vietnam War, the history of Europe from the middle ages through the modern era (fascinating, and very relevant to understanding the geopolitical world at the time of the revolutionary war of independence.)

    Where this passion will go, I don’t know, but I suspect if I was in my late ‘teens, I would strongly consider a major in history instead of physics.

  • Vietnam in HD – History Channel series

    I love Netflix streaming. There is a constant stream of recommended shows that are hit and miss. One, “Aliens on the Moon, the Truth” was a miss. However, “Vietnam in HD” was outstanding.

    It is a series, 6 episodes (40 minutes each, so originally broadcast, they were hour episodes) of commentary and footage from home movies, journalist cameras, and other sources. The commentary were from veterans, or people who were inextricably linked to the war. Fascinating watching, and once I started I couldn’t turn it off.

    Having been born at the beginning of the escalation, it was before my consciousness, so I really had little opinion on the conflict from my direct experience. I of course couldn’t avoid reading about it growing up, but it seemed distant. A conflict to prevent the spread of communism, a domino theory in the cold war between east and west, it seemed remote.

    This show dispelled that notion. It starts off with the lead in. The advisors had been in country for a decade (starting in the mid 1950’s) but boots on the ground didn’t commence until 1965.

    The story in the first episode about taking hill 875, and the 12:1 ratio of dead Vietcong versus Americans, and how this created the new metric for conflict, the body count.

    (more…)

  • The Middle Class – The 20th century and the rise of labor

    Continuing on in the vein of the concept of the “middle class” that politicians and pundits love to banter about. Prior episodes highlighted the rift between the nobles and the serfs that gave rise to the powerful merchant and professional class that was the genesis of the “middle class”.

    The formation of the United States, a representational, constitutional republic without a monarchy, was the start of a bold experiment. There was no “official” noble class, but there was recognition that the vote would be tied to “landed” persons (men) who would benevolently choose leaders for the masses.

    A nice theory.

    Early power was concentrated in the large landholders (often plantation owners in the south, hence the importance of slavery as an institution being enshrined in the Constitution.) But as the industrial revolution played out, money, and with it power shifted to industrial centers in the northeast and midwest. The great equalizer was the development of the railroads. Production no longer needed to be in proximity of the consumers. Pennsylvania became known for steel production with raw ore coming from the iron mines of Minnesota via the great lakes, and coal from Appalachia. Chicago, almost dead center in the country was a way station, and the stockyards that fed the country.

    New York gave rise to the financial institution, concentrating power and money in the world’s largest city.

    (note: there is a lot of simplification in this portrayal)

    (more…)

  • House Hunting Journal – looking forward to moving

    We have found a home we liked, placed an offer, and to our surprise, won the bidding. Woot. Now closing day is 10 days away, and it is time to reflect on how nice it will be to have a house again.

    Some of the downsides to apartment living will be lifted.

    • Having a pantry – As a former chef, and someone who enjoys cooking, the worst aspect of apartment living is the limited space for storage of foodstuffs. I.e. a pantry. Being able to stock up on staples, to have room for some esoteric ingredients, a true spice rack. Right now, all the space I have is a kitchen cabinet, and it is cramped.
    • Buying sundries at Costco – as much as I hate the zoo that is Costco, it is nice to be able to buy toilet paper in 48 packs, and paper towels in quantities that will last. And cheaper too. We will once again have room to store these quantities.
    • private laundry – I have bitched about the laundry rooms on the premises at our apartments, contention for the machines, having other peoples’ soap scents in your clothes, and the general filth of the facilities. Having our own machines hooked up again will be awesome.
    • A yard – A fenced off, safe place for our hounds. Having to leash them up every time they need to potty is a drag.
    • non-through street – not strictly an apartment thing, but we will be living on a street that isn’t a thoroughfare. We currently are at the corner of Lean Avenue and Blossom Hill road, with a highschool next door, and two elementary schools walking distance across Blossom hill. That leads to a lot of traffic, at all hours, and it is difficult to sleep.
    • Garage – while it is not the awesome three car garage I had in Tucson, we will once again have a garage. A priority will be to unpack enough to allow us to park in the garage. It is good to be able to park under cover. My S2000 has suffered in the 7 months we have lived here.

    Yep, we can hardly wait. The list of things to fix/change is piling up, but soon, oh so soon, we will be moving. Yay!