Market Analysis Oddities – Pulling my hair out

I am doing a market analysis to help us decide where we want to spend our next development dollars on.

To accomplish this, I really need to get a good idea of their revenue.

Top down, I took the bible, the accepted research.  I also took the number uttered during the Q4 2011 analysts call, and started from there.  I have some historical knowledge of the business, so I could subtract big swaths right away.  They also reported “strong” performance in two segments that I knwo A LOT about.  Cool.  More clarity.

I get a number that feels right.  It is damn close whether I do a top down, or bottom up analysis.

It falls apart when I try to model for product mix, and units moved.  There is NO FRIGGIN WAY that they sold as many units as we calculate with known ASP’s.  Try a two tier (higher ASP when non-competitive) model?  Still too high.  Adjust the ASP’s to make the number reasonable, and it just is ludicrous (the ASP’s have to TRIPLE to match with what we think we know about their capacity).

Poop.  Back to the grinding stone.