Tralfaz

Category: blog

  • Innumeracy and the cult of anti-vax

    The last post was about an innate understanding of scale and scope, and how this lead to a general understanding of magnitudes.

    A real world example, and one that is top of the news lately is the whole “anti-vaccine” movement. This is the increasing tendency to choose to not vaccinate your children due to the faulty belief that vaccines are worse than the disease. Leaving that argument aside, lets apply this “scale” thing to the antivaccine argument:

    Measles, a once common childhood disease, has several bad results, with the death rate being on the order of 3 per 1,000 infections. (I will admit that I am horrified by how high this is.) That means that if 1000 children contract the measles virus, 3 will die. Let that sink in. That is a 0.3% fatality rate. Seems pretty low, until …

    The MMR (Measles, Mumps, and Rubella) vaccine has pretty much eradicated the disease. In 2000 there were virtually no cases reported in the USA.

    Of course, the vaccine is not risk free. The major risk is an allergic reaction to an ingredient, usually the albumin (protein from the white of an egg), causing an anaphylactic reaction. This is somewhat on the order of less than one event per million doses. That is almost three orders of magnitude lower than the risk of death. (1/1000 the risk). And guess what, when you get a vaccine, the healthcare provider has an epi pen ready for the vanishingly rare anaphylaxis, so even if you do have such a reaction, you will get immediate treatment for it. There is also a more common reaction, of a fever, a rash, and other symptoms, all of which are far less risky than the disease. None of these are considered life threatening.

    So, the risk of a vaccine adverse reaction is 1/1000th the risk of DYING from the disease itself.

    The truly horrifying statistic is the rate of death in immunocompromised victims of measles. That mortality rate is a staggering 30%. That means that if your child is immunocompromised, and contracts the disease, they have a nearly 1 in 3 chance of dying.

    Summary

    The general population is poorly prepared to weigh risks, and scale. Clearly, the benefits of vaccinating your children vastly outweighs the risks with vaccination, but the specious arguments bantered about highlight how little
    the general populace understands the scope and scale of the risks.

  • Numeracy, the common sense of numbers

    When I was in school, calculators were new enough, that they really weren't something that the average student had. They were expensive, and quite limited. Hence, we learnt how to do arithmetic with pencil and paper.

    In those days, the lesson plans were written to be approachable in a reasonable time frame to students to solve problems with pencil and paper easily.

    Even in my physics class (3rd year) we never once used a calculator. But I did learn some things that hang with me to this very day.

    Scale – in high school mathematics, it isn't obvious, but when you take science courses, you learn about this thing called "Scientific Notation". That is typically, mantissa and an exponent. The mantissa being a number like a.bbbbb where the number of "significant digits" is related to how precisely you know a value.

    Estimation – In my high school physics class, we didn't use calculators, but we did learn how to use a slide rule. Don't laugh, this was extremely useful. You learn that you can quickly do large calculations by just operating on the mantissa's and then figuring out the magnitude. Thus 6.03e23 * 1.47e-7 is the equivalent of (6.021.47)x1023 – 7 or 8.85e16 (note, if you use a calculator to calculate 6.02×1.47 you will get a lot more numbers to the right of the decimal point, but I truncated it at two, as there was two digits of significant figures). Thus you can quickly get the scale of the answer (or estimate) by fiddling with the exponents. In this case, you can also get close to the mantissa by noting that 6.02 is almost 6, and 1.47 is a little less than 1.5. 1.56 is 9, so you know that it is a little less than 9, so guess 8.8, and then the exponent of 23 – 7, and you get 8.8e16, pretty damn close, and you can do it in your head.

    There are a lot of other tricks that I use almost daily, often to claims if being magic by the people I interact with, but reality is just common sense combined with numeracy.

    Today, students are armed with calculators, and the art of estimation, and an innate sense of scale is dying. I firmly believe that, plus the rise of misinformation packaged as fact on the internet is leading to the rise in the anti-vaccine trends.

    Next up, I will take apart the common justification of not vaccinating.

  • Blacklist – TV Show

    Blacklist – TV Show

    Netflix has sabotaged my time again. This time with the drama “Blacklist)”, a show about a US Naval Officer who dropped off the grid, going rogue and criminal, and then becoming a high value informer for the government.

    Spoiler alert: if you haven’t watched, and are interested, you might want to stop here and move along.

    The Pilot was fairly compelling, but a bit cheesy. Raymond (Red) Reddington turns himself in at FBI Headquarters, and offers to assist in the capture of some seriously bad dudes (and dudettes), but there is a catch. He will work only through a new agent, a profiler who just joined the force, Elizabeth Keen.

    In the first episode, the story is about halting a public, high impact bombing using a General’s daughter who was kidnapped from the custody of said agent Keen.

    But as with all drama’s there is the main thread, but a few side threads all intertwined into the tapestry of the show. In the pilot, there is a subtext of a connection between Red and Agent Keen that is telegraphing a long term plot line. Additionally, one of the methods the “bad dude” employs to affect agent Keen’s motivation is the restraint and stabbing of her husband, a goofy 4th grade teacher that balances her serious job at the FBI.

    The show ends with agent Keen cleaning up the blood, removing the ruined carpet, and discovering a hidden cubbyhole containing a box with lots of cash, several passports with her husband’s picture but aliases, and a gun (looks to be a H&K 9mm).

    Shit, I am hooked. Yes, the bad dudes getting nailed is a positive feeling, but now I want to know about the connection between Keen and Reddington, and what douchebaggery is her husband up to?

    Megan Boone plays agent Keen, and this will likely be a breakout role for her. She does a great job, and you quickly empathize with her.

    Red Reddington is played by James Spader. I have long been a fan, and his acting is spectacular. In fact, without his presence, I doubt the pilot would have been picked up. However, time has not been kind to James Spader. Definitely not aging well, but he pulls off the character.

    The plot holes

    As I have mentioned the show is a good watch, and the writers/producers do a great job with adding a hook near the end on one of the subplots that keeps you waiting for the next installment.

    But looking at the higher level, the premise that this rogue criminal returns to the fold, and they allow him to remain free, as long as he helps them catch seriously bad dudes. Yeah, that is going to happen.

    Still it is a good story as long as you can overlook that hole.

  • Vietnam in HD – History Channel series

    I love Netflix streaming. There is a constant stream of recommended shows that are hit and miss. One, “Aliens on the Moon, the Truth” was a miss. However, “Vietnam in HD” was outstanding.

    It is a series, 6 episodes (40 minutes each, so originally broadcast, they were hour episodes) of commentary and footage from home movies, journalist cameras, and other sources. The commentary were from veterans, or people who were inextricably linked to the war. Fascinating watching, and once I started I couldn’t turn it off.

    Having been born at the beginning of the escalation, it was before my consciousness, so I really had little opinion on the conflict from my direct experience. I of course couldn’t avoid reading about it growing up, but it seemed distant. A conflict to prevent the spread of communism, a domino theory in the cold war between east and west, it seemed remote.

    This show dispelled that notion. It starts off with the lead in. The advisors had been in country for a decade (starting in the mid 1950’s) but boots on the ground didn’t commence until 1965.

    The story in the first episode about taking hill 875, and the 12:1 ratio of dead Vietcong versus Americans, and how this created the new metric for conflict, the body count.

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  • The Middle Class – The 20th century and the rise of labor

    Continuing on in the vein of the concept of the “middle class” that politicians and pundits love to banter about. Prior episodes highlighted the rift between the nobles and the serfs that gave rise to the powerful merchant and professional class that was the genesis of the “middle class”.

    The formation of the United States, a representational, constitutional republic without a monarchy, was the start of a bold experiment. There was no “official” noble class, but there was recognition that the vote would be tied to “landed” persons (men) who would benevolently choose leaders for the masses.

    A nice theory.

    Early power was concentrated in the large landholders (often plantation owners in the south, hence the importance of slavery as an institution being enshrined in the Constitution.) But as the industrial revolution played out, money, and with it power shifted to industrial centers in the northeast and midwest. The great equalizer was the development of the railroads. Production no longer needed to be in proximity of the consumers. Pennsylvania became known for steel production with raw ore coming from the iron mines of Minnesota via the great lakes, and coal from Appalachia. Chicago, almost dead center in the country was a way station, and the stockyards that fed the country.

    New York gave rise to the financial institution, concentrating power and money in the world’s largest city.

    (note: there is a lot of simplification in this portrayal)

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  • The Middle Class – The Industrial Revolution

    The last post I explored the rise of the talented, educated professional and how their roots were in the guild system. This time, I will start with the industrial revolution, and how that upended the rising of that middle class.

    The Industrial Revolution

    While the shift from craft based manufacture of goods was well underway in the mid 18th century, the trend accelerated mightily with the development and commercialization of the steam engine.

    {A whole book or series of books on the use of steam motive power to drive machines that wove, milled, pressed, etc. Very germane to the topic, but obvious in hindsight, it will be ignored for this brief treatment}

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  • New years commitments – not a resolution

    I never really got into the “New Year’s Resolutions” thing. Too much pressure to succeed, that ironically virtually guarantees your failure. That said, I havd a few things i am going to do better this year.

    My weight

    I have been letting my weight inch up. Stressful job, not enough time to exercise, and comfort foods all conspire. Add in the medications that I take that lower my metabolism, and it is a perfect storm.

    I know how to lose weight, having dropped 25#’s in 2013, so it isn’t a trick. Eat less, exercise more, and be sure that calories in is less than calories out. Easy peasy.

    Back to a measured breakfast, a predictable (and countable calorie) lunch, and modest dinner. Counting calories, and keeping track is key.

    Two weeks in, and i am probably down 7#’s already (the easy initial loss). My pants fit better, and I can tell the difference. Already, I am adjusting to the smaller portions. Woot.

    My drinking

    Our tequila consumption had gone through the roof. Not an every day occurrence, but enough to become a concern. Last night I finished the last of my holiday ale from Christmas, and I will stop buying beer.

    I will occasionally have a glass of wine or a pint of ale, but it will become a once a month thing, not 2 or 3 a week thing.

    Exercising

    This is tougher. My schedule at work is brutal, and I really can’t break away cleanly to exercise at lunch like I have been able to in the past. Still, I need to work harder at getting out on the weekends. Bicycling where I live is choice, so that is a huge positive.

    I still try to get out and walk occasionally too, and I need to start hiking the trails in the Santa Cruz mountains.

    As I approach the magical five-oh, the body clearly needs different behaviors. Time to get serious.

  • New Years Fun

    New Years Fun

    We missed the Fourth of July (we were picking up our dogs), but we read about how some poor sod not far from our new apartment had lost his hand when an illegal firework accident (a co-worker tells me about a park a mile or so from where we live that is chaotic with professional grade fireworks, so I am not surprised).

    But last night on New Year’s Eve, it was pretty insane. Starting about 6:00PM there were sporadic fireworks and random explosions. Not much different than in Tucson or Chandler.  I was hopeful that it wouldn’t be too bad.

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  • 2014 in Review – The Job

    2014 in Review – The Job

    2014 was a chaotic year for many reasons, not the least of which was career related. With the move, it turned out that a promotion was in the works as well.

    The move itself was traumatic. Sadly, the timing couldn’t have been worse. The market in Phoenix was hitting the brakes, while the market in Santa Clara County was putting the pedal to the metal.

    Of course, a pay adjustment was part of the move. Cost of living is much higher in Santa Clara than in Arizona, so that was welcome (and my first pay raise in almost 8 years). The increase wasn’t really enough to absorb the increased costs of the region, but it is a welcome thing.

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  • 2014 in Reflection – the Move

    2014 in Reflection – the Move

    A lot has happened in 2014. Much chaos and drama, both work and personal related.

    Actually, before the beginning of 2014, we were informed of the decision to close the plant where we worked in Chandler Arizona, and the offer to relocate from the Phoenix area to the San Jose area was offered.

    Gulp.

    Not really a great choice to have to make. Sell our house in Chandler that we owned for less than 2 years, and move back to the Santa Clara Valley, or stay, get a 2 months severance, and have to find a job.

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